A decade of easy liquidity has brought down discount rates, boosting equity market multiples and driving durations to all-time highs. Just when central banks around the world start winding down quantitative easing, stocks with high priced-in earnings growth and distant cash flows are more at risk.
We expect cyclicals to outperform liquidity-sensitive stocks as the monetary impulse wanes and economic growth takes the lead.
Among them, European banks profit the most from higher interest rate expectations. Though they have rarely looked cheaper versus the broader European markets, with the P/E discount reaching 45% at the end of last year, their upside interest rate sensitivity has rarely been so high.
This is due to the negative rate environment and the level of excess liquidity. Indeed, as banks are overfunded and deposits are still paying above the ECB rate, they are highly unlikely to pass on any rate increases to depositors.
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